4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 13 at the 54

Miami Dolphins 3 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(4:10) 16-J.Bailey punts 44 yards to CLE 10, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 84-G.Larvadain.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.94 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.50 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.50 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model