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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 6 at the 8

Miami Dolphins 3 – Cleveland Browns 17

What Actually Happened

(:03) 47-R.Patterson 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.17 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 2, worth +3.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 8, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.88 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 21, worth +0.00 EP
PUNT +0.02 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model