Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 89

Miami Dolphins 6 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(12:43) 16-J.Bailey punts 48 yards to CLE 41, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 41 for no gain (27-E.Bonner). PENALTY on MIA-82-D.Eskridge, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 41. Penalty on MIA-27-E.Bonner, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, declined.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.31 EP
72% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 89, worth -5.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model