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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Miami Dolphins 4th & 8 at the 35

Miami Dolphins 6 – Cleveland Browns 24

What Actually Happened

(3:17) (Shotgun) 1-T.Tagovailoa pass short middle to 6-M.Washington to CLE 28 for 7 yards (9-G.Delpit) [95-M.Garrett]. MIA-6-M.Washington was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO +0.10 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 27, worth +4.10 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 35, worth -2.01 EP
KICK -0.16 EP
  • 63% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.25 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 45, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model