Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Miami Dolphins 4th & 16 at the 74

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

(9:11) 16-J.Bailey punts 50 yards to CLE 24, Center-49-J.Cardona. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 31 for 7 yards (49-J.Cardona).

The Three Options

GO -2.74 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.84 EP
71% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 74, worth -4.59 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model