Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 4 at the 85

Miami Dolphins 6 – Cleveland Browns 31

(2:22) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers pass short right to 82-D.Eskridge to MIA 20 for 5 yards (93-S.Harris).

The Three Options

GO -1.81 EP

What Happened

52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.57 EP
48% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 85, worth -4.42 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +0.33 EP