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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Miami Dolphins 4th & 19 at the 49

Miami Dolphins 6 – Cleveland Browns 31

What Actually Happened

(:42) (Shotgun) 14-Q.Ewers sacked at MIA 41 for -10 yards (31-D.McMillon).

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
What Happened
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +2.38 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.72 EP
KICK +0.12 EP
Model's Pick
  • 25% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.64 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 49, worth -0.74 EP
PUNT -0.09 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 14, worth -0.09 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model