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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Miami Dolphins 4th & 9 at the 15

Miami Dolphins 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(14:18) 47-R.Patterson 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.18 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.48 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 15, worth -0.70 EP
KICK +1.19 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.33 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 25, worth -1.30 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model