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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 53

Philadelphia Eagles 14 – Minnesota Vikings 3

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 10-B.Mann punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.87 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 53, worth -3.01 EP
KICK -1.55 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.46 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
What Happened
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 15, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model