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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 11 at the 16

Minnesota Vikings 3 – Philadelphia Eagles 14

What Actually Happened

(6:37) 16-W.Reichard 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-A.DePaola, Holder-17-R.Wright.

The Three Options

GO +0.70 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.74 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 16, worth -1.12 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.20 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 26, worth -1.63 EP
PUNT -0.80 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.80 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model