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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 1 at the 55

Philadelphia Eagles 0 – Minnesota Vikings 0

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 1-J.Hurts up the middle to PHI 46 for 1 yard (61-J.Redmond; 50-L.Rodriguez).

The Three Options

GO +0.72 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 71% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.33 EP
  • 29% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 55, worth -3.31 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.99 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 16, worth -0.99 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model