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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 5 at the 23

Philadelphia Eagles 21 – Minnesota Vikings 16

What Actually Happened

(14:19) 4-J.Elliott 42 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-57-C.Adomitis, Holder-10-B.Mann.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.72 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 23, worth -0.97 EP
KICK +1.26 EP
What Happened
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Minnesota Vikings takes over around their own 33, worth -1.65 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Minnesota Vikings would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model