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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Minnesota Vikings 4th & 2 at the 15

Minnesota Vikings 19 – Philadelphia Eagles 28

What Actually Happened

(2:58) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short right to 3-J.Addison pushed ob at PHI 10 for 5 yards (33-C.DeJean).

The Three Options

GO +2.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.72 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.66 EP
  • 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 25, worth -0.99 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model