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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(13:22) 9-R.Dixon punts 39 yards to DET 14, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO +0.09 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.58 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -3.13 EP
KICK -1.69 EP
  • 30% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.30 EP
  • 70% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.98 EP
PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 15, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.99 EP