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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 6 at the 50

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(7:42) 9-R.Dixon punts 37 yards to DET 13, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.82 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 50, worth -2.83 EP
KICK -1.30 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 14, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.48 EP