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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 15 at the 91

Detroit Lions 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(3:06) 3-J.Fox punts 66 yards to TB 25, Center-49-H.Hatten. 19-K.Johnson to TB 38 for 13 yards (53-T.Nowaske).

The Three Options

GO -3.04 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.97 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 91, worth -5.15 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (108 yards).

PUNT -2.43 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 48, worth -2.43 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model