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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 36

Detroit Lions 14 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(1:56) 39-J.Bates 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

The Three Options

GO +0.90 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.81 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.51 EP
KICK +0.59 EP
What Happened
  • 71% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 29% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.23 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.31 EP