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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 72

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(2:59) 9-R.Dixon punts 47 yards to DET 25, Center-86-E.Deckers, out of bounds. PENALTY on TB-32-J.Hayes, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at DET 25.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 69, worth +1.24 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 72, worth -4.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.49 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 30, worth -1.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.43 EP