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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 45

Detroit Lions 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

What Actually Happened

(13:12) 3-J.Fox punts 34 yards to TB 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO +0.21 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 39, worth +3.32 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.19 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
  • 50% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.74 EP
  • 50% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP