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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 4 at the 63

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9 – Detroit Lions 21

What Actually Happened

(11:36) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 41 for 4 yards (34-A.Anzalone). Detroit challenged the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 88-C.Otton to TB 40 for 3 yards (34-A.Anzalone).

The Three Options

GO -0.62 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 63, worth -3.52 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model