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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q4
Detroit Lions
4th & 10 at the 40
Detroit Lions 21 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9
What Actually Happened
(10:23) 39-J.Bates 58 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The Three Options
GO
+0.04 EP
Model's Pick
-
35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 30, worth +3.84 EP
- 65% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 40, worth -1.97 EP
KICK
-0.02 EP
What Happened
- 62% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.61 EP
- 38% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.69 EP
PUNT
-0.45 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP
The Verdict
Chose KICK
✓ matched the model
