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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 3 at the 78

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Detroit Lions 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) 9-R.Dixon punts 43 yards to DET 35, Center-86-E.Deckers, fair catch by 11-K.Raymond.

The Three Options

GO -1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.56 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 78, worth -4.78 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 35, worth -2.25 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.65 EP