Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 6 at the 62

Detroit Lions 24 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9

(:19) 3-J.Fox punts 41 yards to TB 21, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 19-K.Johnson.

The Three Options

GO -0.50 EP

46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +0.35 EP
54% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 62, worth -1.21 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model