Back to Game
Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
?
Q1
Detroit Lions
4th & 2 at the 15
Detroit Lions 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0
What Actually Happened
(:46) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short left to 18-I.TeSlaa.
The Three Options
GO
+2.93 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +5.21 EP
- 42% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 15, worth -0.23 EP
KICK
+1.79 EP
- 96% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.91 EP
- 4% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT
+0.18 EP
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.18 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
