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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 9 at the 59

Dallas Cowboys 17 – Washington Commanders 8

What Actually Happened

(14:17) 5-B.Anger punts 49 yards to WAS 10, Center-44-T.Sieg, fair catch by 83-J.Lane.

The Three Options

GO -0.53 EP
  • 39% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.84 EP
  • 61% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 59, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.20 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 18, worth -0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model