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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 46

Washington Commanders 8 – Dallas Cowboys 17

What Actually Happened

(10:59) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 86-Z.Ertz (14-M.Bell). Penalty on WAS-72-J.Conerly, Offensive Holding, declined.

The Three Options

GO -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 49% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 41, worth +2.88 EP
  • 51% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 46, worth -2.81 EP
KICK -0.94 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.31 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 49, worth -2.92 EP
PUNT -0.55 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 13, worth -0.55 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model