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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Dallas Cowboys 4th & 6 at the 11

Dallas Cowboys 41 – Washington Commanders 22

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 17-B.Aubrey 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-44-T.Sieg, Holder-5-B.Anger.

The Three Options

GO +2.19 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +5.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.90 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.64 EP