Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 94

Washington Commanders 22 – Dallas Cowboys 44

What Actually Happened

(4:45) 10-T.Way punts 59 yards to DAL 35, Center-69-T.Ott, downed by WAS-35-P.Butler. PENALTY on DAL-21-C.Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

The Three Options

GO -2.98 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.66 EP
60% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 94, worth -5.45 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (111 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model