4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 78

Washington Commanders 8 – Dallas Cowboys 10

What Actually Happened

(4:48) 10-T.Way punts 56 yards to DAL 22, Center-69-T.Ott. 9-K.Turpin to DAL 26 for 4 yards (18-T.Owens).

The Three Options

GO -0.73 EP
Model's Pick
  • 77% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +0.43 EP
  • 23% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 78, worth -4.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -2.08 EP
What Happened
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 35, worth -2.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP