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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 5 at the 29

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 3

What Actually Happened

(11:26) 25-A.Szmyt 47 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-50-R.Sunahara, Holder-13-C.Bojorquez.

The Three Options

GO +0.56 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.16 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 29, worth -1.67 EP
KICK +0.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 81% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.27 EP
  • 19% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 39, worth -2.35 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model