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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 13 at the 14

New England Patriots 3 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 36-A.Borregales 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.39 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.44 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 14, worth -0.47 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 31-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.64 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 24, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.29 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth -0.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model