Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 60

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 6

(2:15) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NE 17, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.42 EP
70% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 60, worth -3.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model