Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 9 at the 68

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 9

What Actually Happened

(13:20) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 35 yards to NE 33, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones. PENALTY on NE-39-R.Grant, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at NE 33.

The Three Options

GO -1.94 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.10 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 68, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model