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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Cleveland Browns 4th & 1 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 23

What Actually Happened

(4:29) 44-H.Fannin right end to CLE 26 for 2 yards (2-H.Landry; 14-R.Spillane).

The Three Options

GO -0.75 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.84 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 76, worth -4.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.72 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 34, worth -1.72 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model