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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 18 at the 18

New England Patriots 0 – Cleveland Browns 0

What Actually Happened

(8:49) 36-A.Borregales 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-J.Ashby, Holder-17-B.Baringer.

The Three Options

GO +1.15 EP
  • 23% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.99 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 18, worth -0.30 EP
KICK +1.84 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 28, worth -0.91 EP
PUNT +0.31 EP
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 11, worth +0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model