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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 11 at the 12

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 30

What Actually Happened

(12:18) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass incomplete short left to 3-J.Jeudy (0-C.Gonzalez).

The Three Options

GO +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.36 EP
  • 75% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 12, worth -0.22 EP
KICK +1.55 EP
Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then New England Patriots takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: New England Patriots takes over around their own 22, worth -0.93 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model