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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New England Patriots 4th & 12 at the 89

New England Patriots 30 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(10:23) 17-B.Baringer punts 15 yards to NE 26, Center-47-J.Ashby, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 77, worth +1.06 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 89, worth -4.90 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (106 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 46, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model