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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 15 at the 72

Cleveland Browns 13 – New England Patriots 32

What Actually Happened

(3:25) (Shotgun) 8-D.Gabriel pass short right to 44-H.Fannin to CLE 34 for 6 yards (14-R.Spillane; 7-C.Davis).

The Three Options

GO -2.25 EP
What Happened
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.51 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 72, worth -3.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 30, worth -1.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.18 EP