4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 60

New England Patriots 3 – Cleveland Browns 7

What Actually Happened

(3:22) 17-B.Baringer punts 48 yards to CLE 12, Center-47-J.Ashby. 84-G.Larvadain to CLE 19 for 7 yards (41-B.Schooler; 15-M.Mapu). PENALTY on NE-41-B.Schooler, Face Mask, 15 yards, enforced at CLE 19.

The Three Options

GO +0.39 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.50 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 60, worth -3.13 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (77 yards).

PUNT -0.47 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 19, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP