Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 54

Cleveland Browns 7 – New England Patriots 3

(:59) 13-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NE 15, Center-50-R.Sunahara, fair catch by 25-M.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -1.15 EP

34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.74 EP
66% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 54, worth -3.14 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model