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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 32

Pittsburgh Steelers 3 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(12:23) 9-C.Boswell 50 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +1.74 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +4.21 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 32, worth -0.95 EP
KICK +1.23 EP
What Happened
  • 77% chance to make a 49-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 23% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 42, worth -1.73 EP
PUNT +0.41 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.41 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP