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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 71

Green Bay Packers 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(13:37) 19-D.Whelan punts 56 yards to PIT 15, Center-42-M.Orzech. 85-K.Williams to PIT 20 for 5 yards (16-B.Melton).

The Three Options

GO -0.32 EP
Model's Pick
  • 75% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
  • 25% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 71, worth -4.37 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 29, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.65 EP