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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 9 at the 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 6 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:56) 9-C.Boswell 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.88 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.51 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 29, worth -0.96 EP
KICK +1.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 46-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.93 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 39, worth -1.61 EP
PUNT +0.13 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model