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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 1 at the 17

Green Bay Packers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 16

What Actually Happened

(10:18) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 85-T.Kraft pushed ob at PIT 10 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).

The Three Options

GO +3.06 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.78 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
  • 94% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.49 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 27, worth -1.23 EP
PUNT -0.16 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.16 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model