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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 10 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 16 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:39) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 28, worth +4.32 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.93 EP
KICK +0.08 EP
What Happened
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model