Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 19 at the 84

Pittsburgh Steelers 19 – Green Bay Packers 29

(9:08) 3-C.Waitman punts 46 yards to GB 38, Center-46-C.Kuntz. 87-R.Doubs to GB 44 for 6 yards (44-C.Bruener).

The Three Options

GO -2.95 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.47 EP
71% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 84, worth -4.75 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model