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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 20 at the 38

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:46) 9-C.Boswell 56 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-C.Kuntz, Holder-3-C.Waitman.

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
  • 24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +5.07 EP
  • 76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.64 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 37% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.40 EP
PUNT +0.20 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.20 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model