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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 3 at the 7

Green Bay Packers 32 – Pittsburgh Steelers 19

What Actually Happened

(4:02) 17-B.McManus 25 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +2.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.25 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 7, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +2.20 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.26 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.26 EP
PUNT +0.06 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.06 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP