4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 10 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 7 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

What Actually Happened

(14:55) 17-B.McManus 57 yard field goal is No Good, Short, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO -0.28 EP
Model's Pick
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.75 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 39, worth -2.41 EP
KICK -0.48 EP
What Happened
  • 61% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.15 EP
  • 39% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 48, worth -3.01 EP
PUNT -0.62 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.62 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model