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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 2 at the 15

New York Jets 3 – Cincinnati Bengals 17

What Actually Happened

(5:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Fields pass short right to 16-T.Johnson for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The Three Options

GO +2.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 13, worth +4.89 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 15, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.31 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.44 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Cincinnati Bengals takes over around their own 25, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.32 EP
  • Cincinnati Bengals would take over around their own 11, worth -0.32 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model